开源情报与公共外交作用的机制、效应与边界
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.70693/rwsk.v2i3.301Keywords:
开源情报, 公共外交, 数字传播, 国家形象, 声誉安全Abstract
平台化传播重塑了国际舆论结构，公共外交由政府主导的单向传播转向多主体参与的网络竞争。开源情报（OSINT）以公开信息为基础，通过核验、推理与可视化呈现形成证据链叙事，并在跨平台扩散与媒体/智库引用过程中进入公共议程，影响国际受众对责任归因与能力评估等关键问题的解释框架。本文在公共外交概念演进与“声誉安全”视角下，选取MH17事件中的Bellingcat调查与俄乌冲突中ORYX可视化战损统计为案例，分析开源情报影响公共外交的机制与边界。研究发现：开源情报的作用不在于简单替代官方叙事，而在于改变叙事竞争的起点——以证据可见性提升解释优势，进而对国家形象与声誉安全产生外溢影响；同时，开源情报亦面临可得性偏差、平台算法放大与工具化的风险。
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